We use data on Russian regions to examine the effect of institutional quality on institutionally dependent manufacturing sectors in terms of both output levels and growth rates. Unlike the existing literature on this topic, which mostly uses cross-sectional or pooled specifications for either country-level or regional data, we use panel data. This approach allows us to distinguish between short-term and long-term impacts and mitigates endogeneity concerns. As an additional contribution to the literature, we estimate the full marginal effects of institutions on manufacturing sectors with different degrees of institutional dependence. In terms of policy recommendations, our results imply that significant institutional improvements would be needed for the Russian economy to diversify away from heavy reliance on oil and natural gas.
Based on a series of in-depth interviews, we analyze the impact of the current crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on Russian IT firms, as well as the effects of government anti-crisis policies. We also study the prospects of IT development in Russia.
It is shown that the crisis has not caused fundamentally new problems for the IT sector, but it has strengthened some pre-existing contradictions. However, along with the absence of critical shocks from the crisis – largely due to a dampening role of public sector orders – there were no fundamental changes in the IT sector.
Because of its key role in the digital transformation, the IT sector will significantly determine a recovery from the crisis and a pace of economic development. For this reason, the prospects for the Russian IT sector seem very favorable. However, its economic and social impacts will heavily depend on the quality of public policy.
The article discusses two groups of problems in Russian statistics that still have no viable solutions. The first one - the state of the statistics interface – is the set of channels through which users obtain statistical information. The second – metadata status – is the information on how the indicators are constructed. The problems are considered from the standpoint of consumers of statistical information, performing tasks of analyzing economic dynamics. It is concluded that with the transition from traditional printed materials to statistical information systems, interface development has come to a standstill, and in the development of metadata, there is no compliance with any standards, uniformity, and consistency. In the author's opinion, these problems seriously hinder the improvement of all Russian statistics, being a kind of blood clots. When an interface becomes a bottleneck, the value of statistics to users decreases. The unsatisfactory state of metadata leads to the fact that consumers of statistical information are not always able to use it adequately, and the problems of statistical methodology are conserved. The causes of the problems are determined, on the one hand, by the complex history of domestic statistics (extended period of development in a planned economy and the specifics of economic transformation), and, on the other hand, by the lack of effective feedback. The author considers possible approaches to addressing the problems. The expediency of creating groups of specialists in the structure of the statistical department on the main problem blocks, acting as points of growth and centers of competence, accumulating knowledge, mastering domestic and foreign experience, attracting representatives of the expert community, directing and controlling the activities to solve problems, is substantiated.
The paper discusses new opportunities for Russian price statistics that present-day information and communication technologies bring about. The paper is a response to the study Isakov et al. (2021) dedicated to the effort of developing a toolset to build a price quotation database through automated internet data collection and construction of consumer price indexes based on it. Discussed are the potential implications of this activity for price statistics.
This paper evaluates the impact of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and measures of the state anti-crisis policy on the Russian tourism sector, as well as opportunities and directions of its development. The study is based on the results of a series of semi-structured interviews with owners of firms and heads of key business associations in this sector. The analysis showed that, on the one hand, the crisis has exacerbated the problems that have long been brewing in the Russian tourism sector. On the other hand, the shift in demand to domestic market due to restrictions on international travel provides a real opportunity for the development of the domestic tourism segment. Should the federal and regional authorities, in cooperation with the tourism business, use this window of opportunity, it could help provide the necessary incentives for the inflow of investments into the Russian tourism sector and contribute to the socio-economic development of the regions.
The article discusses research results of socio-economic challenges in modern society using selected international statistics and presented in the format of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) as a follow-up to the author’s prior publications in the journal «Voprosy Statistiki» (Issues 4 and 11 of 2019; Issue 5 of 2020). Introduction to the article rationalizes the subject matter topicality both given the pressing problem of ageing of modern society and in connection with the necessity of practical adoption of National Transfer Accounts in the system of Russian statistics as a coherent derivation and elaboration of the System of National Accounts (SNA), expanding analytical capabilities of statistics. Going into the main part of the article, the author applies statistical methods to explore the key macroeconomic consequences of the global ageing of modern societies. The article provides evidence that macroeconomic challenges and risks to sustainable development emerge primarily in the countries featuring low birth rates, a high share of seniors, and significant levels of government support to the households. The author studies how shifts in the population age distribution translate into changes in consumer spending and incomes. The article presents and analyzes initial findings of the quantitative evaluation of these correlations based on historical data on healthcare expenditures and per capita labor income. The paper identifies the factors and the extent of their impact on how people choose the economic behavior model that ultimately determines the volume and structure of consumption in high inflation economies. Finally, the article lays down a number of conclusions to the following essence: (1) empirical estimates confirm the hypothesis that ageing society presents a heavier «economic burden» for the government finances rather than for the economy as a whole and (2) further advances in macro-statistic work (SNA core sections, National Transfer Accounts, satellite accounts within SNA) become increasingly important for expanding analytical capabilities required to seek for a more effective mechanism to build-up and utilize national resources in the face of population ageing.
The global economy is in recession due to the pandemic of the coronavirus infection COVID-19. According to available estimates, Russia's GDP in 2020 will fall by 2–8%, so that in its consequences the current crisis may be tougher than the crises of 1998 and 2008. In the coming years, the Russian economy will have to recover and enter a new long-term growth path. At what expense and in which industries will this happen?
The report based on the experience of previous crises using industry accounts of economic growth and Russia KLEMS data, examined possible sources of recovery of the Russian economy after the crisis of 2020. By analogy with the recovery after 2008, it is likely to be associated with increased demand for raw materials on world markets and the reaction of the Russian oil and gas complex. Stagnation after 2008 is due to a decrease in production efficiency, especially in the expanded mining complex, as well as the cessation of technological make-up. Growth stimulation measures should include finding ways to increase the efficiency of the expanded mining complex, stimulating the adaptation of advanced technologies, and preserving existing adaptation channels in times of crisis - for example, successful export-oriented industries integrated into global value chains.
In this paper, we study the impact of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the retail sector in Russia. The study is based on a series of interviews with representatives of the sector and macro industry statistics. The crisis has exacerbated the problems that have long been observed in the sector and accelerated its transformation, including the formation of new formats of retail and business models. We show that the greatest changes occurred in the food segment, which was less affected by the lockdowns and could adapt to new conditions faster. The ongoing changes have exposed the lagging regulation in the industry, demonstrated a high dependence on consumer sentiments and business sensitivity to regional conditions, the blurring of retail boundaries associated with the entry of companies from related industries (e.g. IT sector, banks) into the industry, as well as the ongoing digital transformation of the industry. The sector's development prospects will be largely determined by the need to find conceptually new approaches to trade regulation, the availability of digital technologies, and human capital to transform the industry.
Based on in-depth interviews with representatives of Russian auto makers, statistical data, analytical reports and official documents, the paper reviews some key features and trends of the industry prior to the crisis, principal effects of the COVID-19 crisis, and evaluates future prospects of car manufacturing in Russia. The authors demonstrate that the sector utterly depends on massive direct investments from giant international auto makers, proactive state policy as well as major players’ commitment to the domestic market. In the meantime, both domestic and international manufacturers are subject to pressure from the state, which, however, has radically different goals. The international manufacturers are encouraged to localize production and bring to Russia new stages of production cycle. The domestic manufacturers are compelled to safeguard jobs and observe other social obligations. It is shown that the crisis has not brought about significant adverse effects and has not created new problems for the sector, although it augmented some of the earlier contradictions. During the pandemic, the sectoral measures of anti-crisis support played an important role, as did close ties to the state bodies that allowed restoring operation of supply chains and dealers’ networks. Of great importance for the future development of the sector is the dynamics of the domestic market closely connected to the general economic situation, the state policy regarding the localization of production and regulation of various players’ access to measures of state support, as well as development of Russian manufacturers of auto parts. As for principal restrictions for the industry development, it is the vague prospects of its technological future in Russia, which mostly suffers from the lack of a clearly defined government strategy in this regard.
The global economy passes the COVID-19 related crises. For various projections, the output fall in Russia in 2020 will vary from 2 to 8 percent. So, in comparison with the crises of 1998 and 2008, the current shock can be more severe. In the upcoming years the Russian economy will pass the recovery stage, approaching the new balanced growth path. What proximate sources would push this growth?
With the neoclassical industry growth accounting and the Russia KLEMS dataset the present report aims to shed light on this, considering the growth patterns and sources of growth after the crises of 1998 and 2008. The report unveils the most important sources of the after-2008 stagnation in Russia, which are the decreasing efficiency of the extended oil and gas sector and the suspension of technology convergence. Since the recovery in Russia will be, most probably, caused by the increasing demand on energy and raw materials, driven by the recovery of global markets, policy implications for Russia should include efforts to improve efficiency in such export-oriented sectors, as oil and gas, and efforts, which aim to boost technology convergence such as backing export-oriented firms, which have been integrated to global value chains.
How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the medium-term (2020-2021) and long-term prospects of the Russian economy? Regular surveys of professional macro-forecasters and consensus forecasts calculated on their basis allow us to talk about averaged sentiments and expectations of the expert community (in the same sense as it is used to talk about entrepreneurial or consumer sentiments and expectations). Based on surveys conducted by the HSE 'Development Center' Institute in early February and early May 2020, this Chapter analyzes how the pandemic has affected experts' outlooks of the Russian economy.
The article elaborates on the macro-analysis as related to the aggregated National Transfer Accounts (NTA), the topic originated in the prior publications in Voprosy Statistiki journal (Issues 4 and 11 of 2019), and builds upon the research conducted by HSE National Research University in 2020 as part of Russia’s participation in the global National Transfer Accounts project. The author explored various models of funding the economic life cycle deficit (various support system), adopted by separate groups of economies, through the lens of population savings in these countries. The article was profoundly examined how “excessive” household consumption is supported by public transfers and the correlation between the scale of such transfers and the household sector’s appetite for savings. By taking this research angle, the author aimed to develop deeper understanding of the underlying forces that drive savings into investments within the household sector. The author summarized key parameters of aggregated NTA for Russia in 2017–2019 to produce early quantitative assessments of the deficit funding structure. A closer look into relations between the funding models and incomes saved by population allowed to make cross-country comparisons and map Russia in global environment. The article discussions will be useful to the readers with an interest in demographic studies and socio-economics.